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Thursday, 21 October 2010
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How US Non Farm Payrolls Work In Auto Forex Trading
Many who are concerned with auto forex trading do not realize how significant to the global financial markets the US Non-Farm Payroll happens to be. I'm often asked, "why does the monthly US jobs number led to ups and downs in the market?" To give you an answer it is important to look at what is represented by the US jobs number . This will show us why it can make markets move in a way nothing else can .
The US Non-Farm payroll report is released on the first Friday of every new month . This report is put out by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics and the things that it does measure, is the number of new jobs, outside of farming , created in the prior month by the US economy . It is such an important fundamental news announcement because the health of the US and global economy are both reflected . After all , the US economy is the largest in the world and the single largest component that drives the US economy is consumer spending ; to the tune of no less than 70% ! Thus , in auto forex trading, because a country's interest rates is the number one factor affecting the strength or weakness of its currency , one must look to what drives the actual interest rates themselves ; or the US Federal Reserve policy on interest rates. The jobs report is probably the single most important piece of fundamental data that the Fed uses to set interest rates for the short term and because of this the Non-Farm Payrolls report can, and often does , lead to quite a bit of volatility in various markets .
Wondering why the Federal Reserves decision on short term interest rates are related to the jobs report ? Great question ! If the jobs report is on the strong side that generally means that people are employed and resource utilization is high . This also means that companies are employing workers and these workers are going out and spending money too on clothing, eating out, and more and these are the things that help to drive an economy; they help to heat or grow the economy. When the economy is heating up more money is in circulation and keeping inflation in check is very important for the Federal Reserve. The way they keep inflation in check is that they raise short term rates to lower inflation and cool down the economy , or they heat up the economy by lowering the short term rates to help raise inflation . As you can see , the jobs number is one of, if not the primary factor , beneath the surface driving this .
So next time you are preparing for your auto forex trading day or the next week , remember to take a look at the events calendar for the fundamental information that is scheduled to be released that upcoming day or week . If it's the first week within a month then on that Friday there will be the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report because that is when it always comes out . If you're looking to take advantage of the volatility that comes after the release of the jobs report , just remember the following formula : If the jobs numbers are stronger than expected this usually means a stronger economy which will lead to a strengthening of the currency because short term interest rates go higher. On the other hand , if you find the jobs report is weaker than it was expected to be then this usually means lower short term interest rates that lead to currency weakness . Of course it's not always this cut and dry or black and white , but knowledge of these general parameters will give you a leg up on your fellow trading competitors .
Thursday, 07 October 2010
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Auto Forex Trading - The Basics Of Money Management
Auto forex trading allows just about anyone to make a quality living. And what better way to do it than waking up in the morning , having a cup of coffee , and setting up the day in trading while still in pajamas? Not bad ! Well hang on just a second because although it can be relaxing as well as easy many people find it's not all that simple . That's why this article is going to look at principles of money management - because if you know the basics of money management success is more likely for you.
So why, if this is such an important area of money management , do so many people ignore or overlook it ? That's a great question and one you need to take a hard, long look at if you're planning for success in this market. I believe that many people jump over this part of trading , money management principles, because it is not "sexy" . Really, how many really interesting accountants do any of us know ? That is what this side of the fence is all about ; boring numbers and more boring numbers .
With all of that said , it is only going to be boring if you approach it in this way. If you look at this as boring, it will be boring and you won't want to do it . If you have the attitude that this is an important part of becoming a auto forex trading professional and focus on the huge success that lies just ahead of you if you take the time to consider your tactics of money management .... then it can turn into something that is exciting.
Now you're convinced that this area needs to be focused on . Awesome! What is this all about? Here are the keys in order of importance , follow these and you'll be off to a great start : over leveraging yourself should never be done, the leverage on each trade should be consistent , add to the winners but not the losers. That's it . Of course there are quite a few tributaries to each of the aforementioned but they are quite powerful alone.
Next time you're asking yourself why your level of trading hasn't evolved the way you wanted it to , remember the keys to managing your money . One final aspect that is important to consider is this : unimaginable psychological benefits can be provided by good money management. And these psychological benefits will improve your trading beyond what you ever thought was possible . Why? If you're not afraid of losing money , or you have a great plan that makes sure you'll be able to trade another day , then you can look at markets from a state that is relaxed and clear and for your efforts you'll add some serious dividends.
Auto forex trading can be the most rewarding, yet challenging thing, you will ever do . Remember that the most valuable keys to your success are often the most simple and probably uninteresting things staring you right in the face . You've wanted to find the holy grail of trading for so long - and money management is it .David F Dacosta - Is a private trader using technical analysis to do auto forex trading & futures trading. David makes specific trade recommendations for a small select group of traders. He uses drummond geometry to make his forecasts. Click Here for training materials and a free forex trading forecast.
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
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What You Should Know About Greece, The Euro, And The EU
Auto forex trading has been quite volatile lately as a result of the sovereign debt crises currently unfolding in Greece . Many fear that this crisis in Greece is going to spread to other EU countries that are deep in debt like Italy, Portugal, and Spain . As a result of what has happened , against the US Dollar the Euro currency has dropped about 11% . When looking at this situation we need to ask ourselves the following questions : Is the sell-off in the Euro over done and is the recent strength in the US Dollar a result of strong fundamentals in the United States or of weakness in the Euro ? The reason these are important questions is because the answer to the first question will be impacted by the answer to the second one .
I believe that there is a benefit to the US dollar currently only because of the weakness of the Euro . Steam has only been picked up in the spending driven US economy because the Federal Reserve for some time has left the rates near 0%. What will occur when the Fed has to raise these rates? Will the US economy be able to withstand that kind of head-wind ? More than likely, no. Also, it is important to keep in mind that consumers are spending more right now because many consumers are simply walking away from other payments, such as mortgage, auto, and credit card payments. This leaves the consumer with extra income that they otherwise would not have so they're able to spend more on other items such as clothing, new electronic items, and meals out . Again consumers are going at it like crazy. It wasn't sustainable in the last Federal Reserve inflated boom and it will not be sustainable this time . The only options for the US Dollar in the next few years are default or inflation and both of the options will lead to disaster.
When involved in auto forex trading the goal is to make some money. There is no bias . We only want to use our foresight for a profit . So the second question's answer is that the Euro is over sold and will hit a bottom at some point . 1.2300-2400 is probably where it will be . In reality, do you think Germany, the third largest economy in the world , will allow the currency to fail? The answer is, "probably not." This is the reason they aren't printing out more Euros and helping with a Greece bailout . The Euro will be a more sound currency because of what is happening in Greece . Investors will know that the Euro is safe because when there is trouble they will deal with a loss in the short term to preserve their health in the long term . So, Therefore, their economy may be having a tough time , but their monetary unit will be better for all of this . The opposite is true in the United States situation . Money is being printed to avoid short term problems , but this leads to problems with the health of our economy and the US Dollar.
After looking at all that , we soon will be to a point where you will get a great bargain from the Euro that you should take advantage of in your own auto forex trading. Not only for the reasons we've talked about , but simply take a look at the market psychology. The professionals buy when there is a free fall and then the average person finds out about a crisis, comes in, and then tries to short the move that is already over. Already this pattern has happened over and over again, and this will continue to occur as long as human physiology includes limbic systems.David F Dacosta - Is a private trader using technical analysis to do auto forex trading & futures trading. David makes specific trade recommendations for a small select group of traders. He uses drummond geometry to make his forecasts. Click Here for training materials and a free forex trading forecast.
Wednesday, 08 September 2010
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Learn More About Auto Forex Trading Currency Pairings
When speaking with those who haven't tried auto forex trading before, even those involved in futures, stocks, and bonds , it makes me remember that for this global market, even the very basics must be explained. Let's get started looking at pairings and everything having to do with them in the forex market.
Currency pair. What is it? We'll begin with the Eur/Usd which has against the Euro, the US dollar as the bas currency within this pair. When I see a price quote of 1.3200 on the Eur/Usd, what does it mean ? To remember this answer the easy way, do this: take your currency pair base , the US dollar here, look at this price quote of 1.3200, then you say, " 1.3200 US dollars are needed to purchase 1 Euro." The price quote means exactly that . If you check the price quote a couple of months later and it is suddenly 1.4000 then that means the US Dollar as gotten weaker against the Euro since to buy one Euro you now need 1.4000 US dollars . On the other hand, if a couple months later the price quote is then 1.25000 , then the US Dollar has become stronger because now it will only take 1.2400 US Dollars to buy 1 Euro .
Auto forex trading can be really tough when for example you see a price quote on the Usd/Jpy pair for 100.50 . Well, using our method from above , simply take the base currency of Jpy take a look at the price quote that is 100.50 and that is how many Jpy it will take to buy 1 US Dollar . Pretty easy huh ? You should no longer have problems figuring out the price quote on a pair the next time you look at a chart screen or a quote window .
Since you know can read price quotes , what are the main pairs and cross pairs ? Well the main pairs are usually the strongest economies throughout the world versus the US Dollar . A few of these pairs are Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Cad, Usd/Jpy, and Nzd/Usd . The US dollar is not involved in a cross pair which includes the Gbp/Jpy and the Eur/Jpy to name a couple that are popular.
Hopefully this article will be of help to you if you have been intimidated by the auto forex trading landscape previously. You may need a bit of time to get used to this with the many economies, currency pairs, and different time zones . After you start understanding how everything falls together it's really not that bad - and many of us think it's actually quite fun !
Tuesday, 20 July 2010
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Auto Forex Trading - A Look At The Time Zones
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For an average trader, forex trading time zones can be intimidating and difficult . Like most traders , when I first got involved in this cash 24 hour global market , the time zones issue never made a whole lot of sense to me . Over time that would change and here I'm going to show you some of the basics as to how I handle the 24 hour market and hopefully that will help you the next time you're preparing for your next big day of trading .
You first need to think about where you're living , or where you plan to do most of your auto forex trading trading from. This will be the single greatest factor affecting how you look at this 24 hour market . For example, let's say that you live in California which is on Pacific Standard Time and on the United States West Coast which happens to be three hours behind the time on the East Coast .
Now that we've determined that we are going to do our trading from California , which is three hours behind the East Coast , we can start planning our auto forex trading trading day. In this 24 hour market that never sleeps ( while it quiets down on weekends and big international holidays) when the New York financial centers close the trading day stops and resets at about 5pm Eastern Standard Time and the banking centers in the Far East like Hong Kong and Tokyo open and start a new day at roughly the same time. Taking this into consideration it is best to set your trading charts up so that the daily bar or candle use use closes each day at 5pm EST .
Now that we have figured out we're trading from the United States West Coast which is three hours behond New York's EST and we're aware of when the 24-hour market will stop and rest for another day. Next we have to decide when to prepare and plan for the next day . If California is where you live, as in our example here , and you like staying up late then you may want to start preparing to trade the London Session which is from 1am-4am PST or 4am- 7am PST. Maybe you want to sleep through the London session because you like sleeping but have no problem getting up early , at around 4am Pacific Standard Time so you can see what the end of the London session looks like and get ready for the beginning of the New York session which gets going about 5:30am Pacific Standard Time, or 8:30am Eastern Time . Maybe you don't like to get up early and so you'd prefer to be a middle of the day trader ; not a problem . Just wait for 2pm PST or 5pm EST when Tokyo gets started and this session is when you can do your trading.
Now you've got a clear handle on what the major forex trading time zones are all about and you can accordingly plan your days . Just remember, preparation and planning are the most important yet overlooked factors of success in all businesses, including this one. Making plans can be easy for your auto forex trading day.
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